Bankruptcy Filing Tips

I am furious and I will not take it anymore!

"I'm angry and I will not take it anymore!" By R. Morris Segall, CFA, CIC, the mantra above the movie "Network" is a symptom of growing social, emotional, physical and political global recession that is now in its second year. For those of you who have followed our comments in the last three years, you know we have a lot written about the economic and financial developments the events that led to the current severe recession world From our point of view of the reactions of U.S. government and foreign in this recession. However, the duration and severity of this recession in the beginning, we that greater accessibility, and we believe that long-term social costs, physical and policies that represent significant changes in worldwide economic growth and social and political attitudes, especially in the United States in the future.

As we have been saying for some time, this recession was caused initially by housing bubble burst in the U.S., then spread to the financial system and, finally, business, real nonresidential and state and local authorities. The U.S. recession has spread throughout the world that our economy has shrunk and losses Loans to banking services abroad and economies dependent on exports. In fact, the negative impact of recessions in foreign economies abroad are more serious here in the U.S. Therefore, we see following trends and developments.

1. Social unrest in Russia, Eastern and Western Europe as rising unemployment and cuts in public spending programs and income consumers. Of particular interest are the street protests and strikes in Western Europe, where we have not seen this kind of reaction to the economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. That says a lot about the level of anxiety and anger among foreign workers and consumers.

2. This social unrest is to create political change. The governments of Latvia and Iceland have already collapsed and there is increasing pressure on governments Ireland, France and Britain to stop bleeding in these economies. Even in Russia, discontent among the population is under way for the current government which was very popular last year.

3. protests by foreign workers lead to increased calls for the expulsion of migrant workers and protectionist meters to protect domestic jobs and businesses. Globalization has become very unpopular in the advanced industrial countries of Western Europe faced with the erosion of its industrial base have suffered in last ten years. There have been attacks on migrant workers in Western Europe and Russia as the struggle of citizens frustrated and anger of contracts decreases employment in their country. In summary, we see a movement towards the political right nationalist sentiments internationalist perspective to replace the previously deposited abroad. This does not bode well for the future of the European Union and free trade policies.

4. The rise of protectionism is also produced here in the U.S. as evidenced by the recent cancellation of privileges road long-haul Mexican companies have been transporting goods to U.S. Mexico. This burden must now be transported to the U.S. border companies. Mexico responded by placing tariffs on a list of U.S. imports. This backlash against free trade agreements pressure on government leaders still champions of globalization as something desirable for economic growth USA. Politicians in Washington and Fortune 500 manufacturing business and foreign trade are in conflict with the workers and consumers who lose their jobs cheap labor for foreigners. With unemployment in this country effectively and will be 9% more, American workers are angry and not going to take more. "Unions helped Barack Obama. They hope that the" recovery. "Above all, Democrats in Congress and the President has committed re-evaluate free trade agreements the United States and politics. We expect a decline "of the liberal policy of free trade over the last decade.

5. Public anger was aroused by the scandals rescues "a great nation this large, international conglomerates, including business financial, and recently has shown the premiums paid by large financial and nonfinancial companies that have received billions of taxpayer assistance. The rescue And executive bonuses have fueled smoldering public resentment at the growing gap between the wealthy class and the class of difficulty of driving in this country. View slide shows the disparity in real per capita income of the economic expansion of 2002-2007 and the Economic Expansion of the period 1982-1987 under President Reagan.

6. Now also look to the next slide shows the trend of inflation in detail for the period 2005-2008 and for the past six months of reporting in February 2009.

While the collapse of commodity prices over the past six months has been a major causes of negative inflation during the past six months, noting the increase in annual inflation in 2006 and 2007, and rising of many that are not consumer goods cyclical categories of expenses such as costs of public services education and schooling and medical care costs. Add to this the fact that the data of American workers have experienced the second largest cycle of falling stock markets this decade, with declines in the major indexes stock 50% from the maximum and minimum in 2001-2002 and 2007-2009. Above all, the crisis of the current stock market was caused by the excesses and poor risk management by many financial institutions in the country who need help from taxpayers to stay afloat. Not surprisingly, the American middle class is angry and Outraged policies.

It began with the parliamentary elections of 2006, when an angry American electorate has a GOP policy chairman and its worst beating since the election of 1964. This comes at a time when the U.S. economy functions and creating approximately 2 million new jobs by year in 2005 and 2006. This continued with the recent presidential election in 2008, when the application is not likely that a first-term senator from Illinois won the first surprise Democratic nomination by changing the presumed favorite parts, then led the Democratic Party to win most crushing defeat since Lyndon Johnson Barry Goldwater and the Republican Party in 1964. The 2006 and 2008 election results were greatly disheartened by the American voter status, economic status social and political. His statement was clear: "They were angry and not take any more." We have long noted the anger building among U.S. voters candidates and advice to the elections in 2006 and 2008, the American electorate is angry and wanted to change dramatically.

Also estimated that the change is resulting in two separate demands. First, the unequal economic system that allowed the excess and corruption of politicians and CEO of business is unacceptable. Secondly, the middle class wanted the federal government to do more to help with drainage costs of energy, health, education and retirement needs. A credit, the Democratic Party and Barack Obama has captured the discontent of the voters and adopted a populist agenda to respond to this dissatisfaction. The American voters have responded with a landslide victory for President Obama and the Democrats who now control both houses of Congress and the White House. But the intensification of the recession since the end of the third quarter of last year has created more pain and the plight of workers and consumers. recovery programs of President Obama has emphasized the huge taxpayer-funded "rescue" the major institutions financial are thin on the American public. Already angry American voters are now livid with the revelations bonuses to executives failed and the failure of the newly elected Democratic Congress and Senate and the recently appointed within the Obama administration to stop the "politics as usual." The embarrassing revelations and the interaction of voters that the results are forcing the president to adopt a defensive posture to try to convince voters and opponents of Congress on its agenda, both within and outside his party to support. This is not the president's position would be in within the first 100 days of his administration. Recession now belongs to the Democrats and voters now want to see tangible improvements to them by Congress and this administration. Business continued higher at the expense of taxpayers and middle class workers are only adding to the anger of the American public.

7. In addition, the anger, the public U.S. is emotionally stressed and physically weakened. After hitting the dizzying and seemingly inexorable rise of consumer value and net income growth of the economy, rising stock markets and, above all, increased foreign property values in 2003-2006 periods, the American consumer has seen her world literally fell from the second half of 2007. It is estimated that the decline in housing values and stock markets and in the last five quarters is of $ 15 billion, GDP a year. Consequently, U.S. consumer confidence, which issued a high risk tolerance and became panic.

In the article, "enigma of the Fed," April 5, 2007, commented on what seemed a growing fear factor for consumers to cut consumer spending and appetite for risk in the future. We base this on the rise in inflation running at the time and the rapid decline in the current housing cycle led to foreclosures increased. Moreover, as government statistics show later, employment creation was reached in the spring. Fear is something that the American public not much. The post-war has been one of economic growth and a rising standard of living of Americans. No doubt the U.S. economy has experienced periodic downturns and sometimes severe, but were overtaken by longer and longer periods of growth. That is until this decade. The current recession is the second major economic downturn since 2000 and the recession is by far the most harmful and most common in financial and social terms since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The loss housing, employment, equity, financial security and retirement security has caused U.S. consumers to doubt their ability to survive and to doubt the American capitalist economic model. In the current economic climate, Americans are full of anxiety. In a March 4, 2009 article in Advertising Age, it was observed that orders of sleeping pills and antidepressants had risen by 7% and 15% respectively in 2008, despite a reduction in the market these pharmaceutical drug companies. Based on the worsening economic climate in the first half of 2009, we expect these figures to rise. Advertising Age In that article, A study by the National Sleep Foundation has released the March 2, 2009, which is over 30% of respondents said that "loses sleep the economy and their own financial situation. "found the National Sleep Foundation survey increased insomnia and anxiety resulting in increased depression and decreased efficiency and productivity at work. We also believe that there is an increase in calls to suicide and suicide hot lines due to the ongoing turmoil in the lives of Americans during this period of recession. National data is incomplete and not updated in the first quarter of this year, but regional and local data, particularly in cities hard hit by recession show a dramatic increase of suicides, suicide attempts and calls to lines Phone suicide. This emotional stress is taking its toll in the country physical health. We believe that visits to the doctor for emotional or physical stress diseases related have increased and work absenteeism. The result is a significant increase in medical costs for doctor visits and prescriptions, as well as a decrease the overall productivity of workers. In such an environment, people are more nervous and irritable, often leads to more aggressive behavior. In addition, consumption prospects for the future are negative.

We believe these current trends and developments in the significance and long-term implications for the United States and overseas countries, politically, socially and economically. From the point of view of economic prospects over the medium term, we believe that the current recession will be "fully" in the second or third quarter of this year. We believe that the worst of the recession that is now called the first quarter. We do not anticipate an economic recovery may be up the fourth quarter of this year at the earliest, and perhaps the first half of next year. Assuming a cover of the current recession will begin next year and built through 2011, 2012 and 2013, we expect a recovery to be cyclical and very strong because of pent-up demand is from consumers and businesses over the past five quarters. The economic recovery will be led by the United States and abroad with the end of 2010 and more pronounced in 2011, 2012 and 2013.

However, long term we see the following consequences of this recession.

1. Americans to be more prudent to take risks in the future. They will not adopt the rampant use of credit as they have in the past. First, the availability and cost of credit in the future restrict credit to consumers. Second, many users to avoid using credit to maintain the lifestyle, given the difficulty they encountered in meeting debt obligations.

2. Americans are more conservative in their investment programs after the expected cyclical recovery over the next 2-3 years when stock markets around the world. On the one hand, Americans will be older and less inclined to take risks with their remains and / or reconstruction of capital, especially in pension plans. Second rather, faith in U.S. stock markets has been shaken by two market falls 50% in the last nine years and scandals also a participant in these decreases. We believe that the Americans will withdraw an investment of more basic and conservative profile that focuses on the intrinsic value prospects and transparent and predictable. Additionally, we expect a much more regulated financial and capital markets which will result in products of less debt and speculative investment and strategies.

3. Americans work longer before retiring because of huge losses of savings, property and retirement accounts. However, many the current generation of middle-aged workers are suffering serious health deteriorated due to emotional stress and physics courses are now. These workers have aged faster than normal because of the emotional and physical stress of the recession. This will result in many workers to retire earlier than expected, thus increasing the cost of Medicare, Medicaid, social security and private pension costs. These higher costs will also be the enormous increase in the federal program called the costs of baby boomers retiring, "Generation of workers who start at age 65 in 2011 and reach 70 years in 2016.

4. Due to the wealth and job destruction recession and the impending retirement of many workers, the demand for government services is spent aging management the growing population and retirement enormous pressure on the U.S. federal budget. This adds to the enormous pressure on federal finances, which currently applies to the huge "rescue" programs are in place to stabilize the banking system and the end of the current recession. Probably the deficit annual federal budget will be $ 500 billion to 1 billion dollars or more over the next five years. Clearly, this pressure will cause the pressure upward pressure on interest rates and inflation rates in the U.S. and downward pressure on U.S. dollar in the currency markets. In fact, we and other economists have raised the threat of these events at this time and are already of interest to governments and foreign investors holding U.S. Treasury bonds.

5. The unemployment rate in the U.S. will be a record, although a cyclical recovery projected during the period 2010-2013. Just be employment opportunities for many of the ex-San Wall and senior executives of banks and merchants and managers of the automobile and related executive and, in particular, the age of 50.

6. The growing population of aging and retired workers do not have the financial resources provided for this segment of the population Earlier this decade, when the bubble at that time had created many millionaires plan. Therefore, people should live more modestly withdrawn planned and stimulating the economy than many had expected. In fact, for the reasons stated above, will be more of a drain on the U.S. economy in rather than a help. Furthermore, it is expected to increase spending on foreign imports and foreign travel as planned.

7. We hope that trade agreements to be less liberal international and abroad that the enthusiasm for globalization becomes a victim of massive unemployment in the current recession.

Conclusions

We hope that the U.S. recession to end later this year and gradually begins to retire next year and accelerate 2011, 2012 and 2013. The U.S. recovery boost the economies dependent on exports abroad and will be recovered accordingly. After a strong recovery cyclical, the United States to settle in a cycle of economic stagnation characterized by high levels of unemployment secular, reducing worker productivity, a further increase in energy, food and raw material inflation and slower income growth and consumer spending. States Public Finance U.S. will be damaged by high deficits, increased spending right, rising interest rates and a depreciated currency. The future growth in economic long term will be paced by the emerging markets abroad in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America. Americans change political left become more dependent on public spending for basic needs and income. The populations of industrialized countries will move mature political right become more nationalist to protect jobs, businesses and the existing social protection programs. They are also less likely to pursue free trade in the future. Free trade is still important for the newly industrializing economies will pursue export growth in economic development and employment. This will increase tensions between the mature economies of Western Europe, Japan and the United States and emerging economies of Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. From the perspective capital markets, we remain defensive in the short term we are looking for evidence of an economic floor. However, we are ready to focus on the course of action particularly important and the U.S. NASDAQ stock to participate in a valley of the recession and subsequent economic recovery here and abroad. We also want increase our positions in gold and other commodities such as reviving the global economy and commodity prices. At the same time, we are to avoid obligations as a change in cash and stock to increase interest rates for economic recovery. Yes Please contact us for specific information about your investment program.

About the Author

Morris Segall, President of SPG Trend Advisors, is an author, financial industry expert and investment adviser with more than 25 years of experience dedicated to capital markets strategy, global economic trends and institutional wealth management for entities with more than $1 billion in assets. Before co-founding SPG Trend Advisors, Mr. Segall was Senior Vice President at Mercantile Bank and Trust Company and at Mellon Financial Corporation. Prior to that, he was founder and CEO of Segall Financial Management, Inc.

Known for his well-researched and astute financial analyses and forecasts of global economic and geo-political market forces, Mr. Segall has been a guest commentator on Neil Cavuto’s popular Fox News financial show and has been interviewed by the Wall Street. Transcript and other news media. He authored Sea Change, a financial newsletter focusing on global economic, geo-political and capital market issues and trends.

A frequent speaker at financial forums, Mr. Segall has addressed organizations including Vistage, TMI Executive Resources, the Beard Miller Company, the Greater Baltimore Technology Council and the Urban Land Institute, providing valuable insights into global market conditions, based on his extensive market research.

Mr. Segall is a graduate of the University of Baltimore, a Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Investment Counselor. His professional affiliations include the: CFA Institute, Baltimore CFA Society and Investment Advisor Association.

No related posts.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.